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Wednesday, April 1, 2009

Harley-Davidson over the hill?

Like many Americans in their 40s, Michael Bogart is thinking about aging.

In the 1980s, when Bogart first started working at the Harley-Davidson (HOG, news, msgs) motorcycle dealership in Long Island City, N.Y., his average customer was between 25 and 35. Today, he says, it's more like 45 to 55.

Bogart isn't the only one worried. Harley-Davidson might be one of the best-known brands in the world, but it's perceived, at least in some circles, as the motorcycle of choice for aging baby boomers. Now the motorcycle giant confronts a double whammy: Its aging customers are facing physical challenges that could keep them off their bikes for good and financial troubles stemming from the recent market meltdown. On top of that, luxury brand Harley is itself struggling to get through a broad, deep recession and credit crisis.

"People walk through the front door looking to buy a bike because they want it, not because they need it," says George Dennis, the dealership's business and finance manager. "How many people have the disposable income to dump $20,000 on a Harley?" Bikers talk: What's so special?

In January, Harley-Davidson sold Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, news, msgs) $300 million of unsecured notes; it offloaded an additional $300 million of such notes to Davis Selected Advisers. Both sales were part of an effort to raise $1 billion in cash to solidify Harley's financial-services division, which had lost $25 million in the last quarter of 2008.

Then in early March, Harley-Davidson announced that global sales for its motorcycles had fallen 13% in the first two months of this year. U.S. retail sales -- which accounted for almost 73% of the company's sales -- were down 9.4% in the same period; international sales dropped by 21.5%. The 105-year-old company's stock, which was trading at $42.80 as recently as six months ago, is now barely in the double digits.


Harley isn't the only motorcycle maker in trouble: The entire industry is feeling the pinch of the economic downturn and the aging rider population. After several years of steady increases, total U.S. motorcycle sales dipped in 2007 and 2008; estimated sales for last year were 9% below the 2006 peak, according to the Motorcycle Industry Council, a trade group.

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